The Miami Heat roll into Philadelphia on Sunday, November 23, 2025, with momentum, a 10-6 record, and a chance to extend their three-game win streak against a wounded Philadelphia 76ers team missing its superstar. Tip-off at Xfinity Mobile Arena is set for 1:00 PM EST, though some sources list 2:00 PM — a minor confusion that mirrors the broader uncertainty surrounding this game’s outcome. With Joel Embiid, Kelly Oubre Jr., and Adem Bona sidelined, the 76ers are playing without their defensive anchor and two key rotation pieces. Meanwhile, Miami’s own injury list — Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, and Nikola Jovic — is concerning, but not crippling. What’s left is a fast, high-risk, high-reward matchup: two teams with offensive firepower but shaky defenses, playing in a building where home energy could tip the scales.
Historical Dominance Meets Current Instability
Last season, the Heat didn’t just beat the 76ers — they dismantled them. A 4-0 sweep, with an average margin of victory of 14.7 points. Seven of the last eight meetings saw Miami cover the spread. Even when the 76ers were favored — like in February 2025, when they were +2.5 at home — the Heat still won, 108-101. This isn’t a fluke. It’s a pattern. And yet, this year’s 76ers are a different animal. Without Embiid, they’re not just missing a scorer; they’re missing a gravitational force that alters how defenses operate. Their offensive rating still ranks 9th in the league, thanks largely to Tyrese Maxey, who dropped 54 points in an overtime win over Milwaukee just days ago — on a back-to-back, no less. That’s not just hot shooting; that’s elite clutch performance under pressure.But home court hasn’t been kind to them lately. The 76ers are 2-3 against the spread in their last five games, and only three of their last eight home games have gone over the total. The crowd’s energy, usually a weapon, has sometimes turned into noise that rushes shots. As Lean.ai noted, Philadelphia must channel that energy into defensive poise — not panic. They’ve got the pieces: Justin Edwards is a spark plug, and Paul George is slowly finding rhythm. But without Embiid’s rim protection, the Heat’s perimeter shooters — and their league-leading pace — will feast.
The Numbers Tell a Story
Miami leads the NBA in scoring at 124.8 points per game. That’s not a typo. They’ve scored 143 in their last game against Chicago — eight players in double figures. That’s not just balanced scoring; that’s chaos in motion. But here’s the twist: they’re 20th in defensive efficiency, allowing 119.0 PPG. They win by outscoring you, not stopping you. The 76ers? They’re 15th in scoring (118.4) and 16th in defense (116.1). Both teams are built for shootouts.The over/under is a battleground. Lean.ai and Action Network set it at 240.5. Sports Illustrated says 241.5. Fox Sports 940’s model projects 239.2 — and they’re betting the under. Why? Because despite the Heat’s pace, the 76ers have been slow in the first quarter lately. Action Network’s "Top Shelf Action" pick is Over 62.5 points in the first quarter — a bold call, given that Philadelphia’s offense often takes 4-5 minutes to ignite. The Heat, on the other hand, are 9-7 on the over this season. Their games average nearly 245 points. But when they play teams without elite interior defense? The numbers explode.
Who Steps Up Without the Stars?
With Embiid out, the 76ers’ offensive burden falls squarely on Maxey. He’s averaging 29.8 PPG over the last 10 games. But he’s also turning the ball over 4.1 times per game — and Miami’s defense, while porous, is disciplined. They’ll dare him to shoot, and if he forces it, they’ll pounce. Justin Edwards, listed at a 12.07-point prop line, could be the X-factor. He’s averaging 11.3 PPG over the last month, often as a spark off the bench. If he plays 25+ minutes, he could hit his line — and then some.For Miami, Kel'el Ware is the surprise. The 20-year-old rookie led the Heat with 20 points against Chicago, playing 28 minutes. He’s athletic, he’s fearless, and he’s getting minutes because the rotation is thin. He’s not just filling in — he’s elevating. His ability to finish at the rim and stretch the floor could be critical against a 76ers frontcourt missing Embiid and Bona.
What’s the Real Edge?
The 76ers are favored by 1.5 points, but the public is leaning hard — 63% of money is on Philly, per Action Network. That’s a red flag. Sharp bettors are quietly backing the Heat at +100. Why? Because Miami’s offense doesn’t need Embiid to be off the floor. They thrive on transition, ball movement, and exploiting mismatches. And with Philadelphia’s starting small forwards allowing 5.8 three-point attempts per game (third-most in the league), Miami’s wing shooters — even without Herro — have room to operate.Also worth noting: the Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs. They’re not just surviving — they’re winning. The 76ers, meanwhile, are 2-3 ATS in their last five. Their home record is shaky. And with the crowd’s energy unpredictable, and the defense exposed, this feels like a game where the underdog’s discipline wins out.
What’s Next?
If Miami wins, they’ll be 11-6 and sitting comfortably in the top four of the East. A loss? They’ll still be competitive, but the narrative shifts: can they win without Herro? Can they survive against elite defenses? This game is a litmus test. For Philadelphia, a win would be a statement — proof they can compete without Embiid. A loss? It deepens the concern about their identity. They’re not just missing a player; they’re missing a system.The final score? Expect a thriller. Somewhere between 128-126 and 132-130. The over feels inevitable. The spread? Too close to call. But if you’re betting on momentum, discipline, and a team that’s used to winning without its stars — the Heat are the pick.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Joel Embiid’s absence impact the 76ers’ chances?
Without Embiid, the 76ers lose their primary scorer, defender, and floor-spacer. Their offensive rating drops by 11.3 points per 100 possessions in games he misses, per NBA Advanced Stats. They’re now relying on Maxey to carry the offense, but without a true post presence, defenses can sag off and crowd the perimeter — making it harder to generate clean looks. Their rebounding and rim protection also plummet, which plays directly into Miami’s fast-paced, transition-heavy style.
Why is the over so popular despite the 76ers’ recent under trends?
The over is popular because Miami’s pace is the fastest in the NBA — they average 100.8 possessions per game. Even with injuries, their offense is built to create quick shots and second-chance opportunities. The 76ers, while inconsistent, still rank top-10 in offensive efficiency. When two high-tempo, high-scoring teams meet, the total often exceeds expectations. Plus, with Embiid out, the 76ers are more likely to trade baskets than play half-court defense — making the over a logical play despite their recent under trends at home.
Is Tyrese Maxey a safe prop bet for over 28.5 points?
Yes — but with caution. Maxey has scored over 28.5 in 7 of his last 10 games, including a 54-point outburst. Miami’s defense lacks interior size, which opens driving lanes. But the Heat have improved their perimeter help rotation since November. If Maxey gets early fouls or faces double-teams, his efficiency could drop. Still, with no Embiid to draw attention, Maxey will get 20+ shots. He’s the most reliable offensive weapon left for Philly.
Why are sharp bettors backing the Heat as underdogs?
Sharp bettors see Miami’s recent ATS trends — 5-1 in their last six as underdogs — and recognize their ability to win ugly. They’re 8-2 in games where they score 120+ points, and with Philadelphia’s defense vulnerable without Embiid, Miami’s depth and pace should overwhelm them. The public is overreacting to Philly’s home crowd and Maxey’s hot streak, but the underlying metrics favor Miami’s system over Philadelphia’s current instability.
What’s the most valuable betting angle in this game?
The most valuable angle is the first-quarter total. Action Network’s "Top Shelf Action" pick is Over 62.5 points in the first quarter at -104. Why? Miami’s offense is explosive out of the gate — they average 31.2 first-quarter points, best in the league. Philadelphia, even without Embiid, tends to start fast at home to feed the crowd. If the first 12 minutes go over 62.5, it sets the tone for a high-scoring game — and the early momentum often carries through.
Could Kel’el Ware be a breakout star in this game?
Absolutely. With Wiggins and Jovic out, Ware is getting 25+ minutes. He’s a 6’11" athlete who can run the floor, finish above the rim, and stretch the floor with his shooting. Against a 76ers frontcourt missing Embiid and Bona, he’ll have space to operate. He scored 20 against Chicago on 8-of-11 shooting. If he gets 15+ points and 8+ rebounds, he’ll be the difference-maker — and a steal at his current prop lines.
